Forecast Update: Amazon Expands Tablets’ Addressable Market

Apple’s anticipated iPad update comes as the tablet market is white-hot. In a new report published for Forrester clients today, we’ve revised our US consumer tablet forecast upward: We now expect 112.5 million US adults to own a tablet in 2016, which will equal 34.3% of US adults. In Europe, the numbers are similarly impressive, with an expected 105.7 million tablet users, or 30.4% of consumers 16 and older, in the EU-7 by 2016. With an assumed replacement rate of two years, cumulative unit sales will be much higher: In the US, we forecast that consumers will buy 292.5 million tablets from 2010 to 2016.

Tablets are a global phenomenon—we estimate that US consumers constitute only 43% of Apple’s 55 million iPads sold through the end of its last fiscal quarter, with the rest going to consumers and enterprises in the rest of the 90 countries where the iPad is now sold. Tablets are also a worker phenomenon: Although the No. 1 place where consumers use tablets is in the living room, 37% of US tablet owners take them to work as well. In a recent Forrester survey of 9,912 technology end users at SMBs and enterprises in 17 countries, we found that workers in BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and Mexico actually led demand for wanting to use a tablet for work—and being willing to share the cost of the device with their employers.

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NFC Points To The "Pay-Per-Action" Market

My recent paper looked at the "tap" paradigm exhibited by technologies such as NFC. I want to explore the implications of how the innocuous "tap" points the way to a not just a richer mode of marketing interaction but hints at how the "pay per" market might develop due to offline/online convergence.

There are primarily two models to the placement of NFC campaigns — the first is on your own property, which may be anything like a store, product, poster, or packaging. The second is on the outdoor network of enabled bus stops, cinemas, smart posters, and public screens. Many large shopping centers and 0ut-of-home (OOH) media stations are already enabled with NFC tags and their real-estate can be addressed dynamically by marketers to put apps, links, and media on them.

Examining the campaign management systems for tag-based approaches shows their toolset to be very similar to pay-per-view (PPV) , pay-per-click (PPC), and display tools. The difference with pay-per-tap is that the location the marketing message is delivered into is a tag rather than a a slot in Google Search results or a display location.

The figure below shows a recent campaign undertaken by Blue Bite and RMG Networks. Doesn’t it look just a little bit like the purely online models? 

 

LOOKING AT OFFLINE AND ONLINE IN CONCERT REVEALS THE "PAY-PER-ACTION" MARKET

The PPC and display industries easily have the smartest profiling, placement, and measurement systems but they aren’t addressing the real world, which is slowly filling up with tags and other digital touchpoints.

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