Market insights 2012 Soundtrack

I love this time of year. As a real nostalgic I enjoy all these ‘best of 2011’ lists and ‘year in review’ overviews and it feels there are more every year. In the past two weeks we also have been bombarded with opinions about the developments in the market insights industry in 2011, as well as what people expect to happen in 2012 (and beyond). We’ve seen Twitter 2011 reviews, crowd sourcing activities, expert views, and so on. And I read them all. However, I do this with my favorite end of year activity playing in the background: The Top2000. This is an annual five day event that counts down the 2,000 best records ever produced - as voted by 3 million Dutch adults.

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The Data Digest: Who Adopts Tablets Next?

In the current time of digital disruption, market insights professionals need to know the market their organization plays in well enough to identify the “adjacent possible” but also to understand how receptive their customers are to new offerings. With that in mind, I’ve taken a fresh look at Forrester’s Technographics® segmentation. This segmentation is built on three main components: motivation, income, and technology optimism/pessimism using a proprietary algorithm and is created in 1997 when we first began collecting our Technographics® data to help companies understand and predict changes in the consumer technology landscape. In 1999, Forrester published a book, called 'Now or Never', that covered how companies should use the model. 

Recently I was wondering: does the segmentation still hold for current technologies like tablets and can it still help companies understand and predict technology behaviors? For this, I analyzed tablet uptake as well as buying intention of tablet from one of our European surveys by segment:

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Aussie online retail predictions for 2012

Recently, I published a report about Australian online retail in 2012. The report contains data, examples and detail as you've come to expect for Forrester, but the top line is that in 2012:

  • Mobile commerce will strengthen its place as an important part of Australia's online retail mix
  • Marginal daily deal sites will fold, merge, or sell
  • Local lean startups will bring mass customization to more customers, placing pressure on the retail giants that lag in this area
  • A plucky few companies will find a way to combine the speed of online startups with the scale of the retail giants
  • Couriers, software developers and other partners to online retail will step up their efforts to provide the services that eBusiness professionals actually require
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The Globalization of eCommerce in 2012

As we look back on the year 2011, eCommerce organizations continued to expand their global reach. A growing number of US and European retailers started shipping internationally. Brands enabled eCommerce on their own websites in new markets and launched online stores on marketplaces in multiple countries. Other companies with an interest in global eCommerce used the year to gain insights into new markets, determining which ones to prioritize in the years ahead. Rumors swirled about Amazon preparing to enter India. Or Brazil.

For many companies, however, the globalization process is still just beginning. Aside from a handful of companies that operate eCommerce sites around the world, few companies have a truly global online footprint. The growing number of US- and European-based companies that ship internationally will see revenues increase from these markets, but will start to hit a language ceiling: Close to two-thirds of online consumers in both France and Germany, for example, agreed with the statement, “I only shop from websites in my native language.” In the UK, the percentage is close to three-quarters.

2012 will not be the year that eCommerce organizations blanket the globe with localized offerings – they will, however, continue stepping into international waters. Next year we expect to see :

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2012 Online Holiday Shopping Highlights

As the online holiday shopping season comes to a close, we’re in the process of pulling together our final thoughts on this season.  Last month, we predicted that the season would grow 15% over the previous year and by all accounts, that number should more or less be in the ballpark of what actually happened. 

I worked with the great team at Bizrate Insights again this holiday season to survey online holiday shoppers and their attitudes and here were some of the highlights from that research:

  • The web is cannibalizing Black Friday sales; 80% of online buyers we surveyed agreed with the statement “I prefer to shop online rather than go to crowded stores during the Thanksgiving weekend.”
  • Email is very much alive; shoppers said they find out about holiday deals through email more than any other marketing channel including search, social networks and mobile texts combined.
  • Approximately 12% of web buyers now say they belong to shipping clubs (e.g. Amazon Prime); that is up from 9% last year.
  • Sixteen percent of online buyers said they shopped with their mobile devices over the Thanksgiving weekend this year, up from 9% last year.

While mobile shopping is the most notable difference this year, retailers that mastered the basics of great values, extensive assortments and effective marketing campaigns should have fared best. We’ll be releasing a holiday post-mortem in January as well as our 2012-2017 online retail forecast in early Q1; stay tuned for final figures. 

Know About Interactive Marketing In China? We'd Like To Give You Some Free Data!

Yes, really. If you make decisions about your company's interactive marketing programs in China, I want to give you some data you probably don't have access to: Survey data on how your peers and competitors are using interactive tools in the country.

You see, I'm working on a handful of reports covering the interactive marketing landscape in China — based on a long trip to the country in August and September of this year, as well as dozens of interviews with marketers and agencies in the country — and now it's time for my final piece of data collection: a marketer survey. So if you set or influence interactive marketing plans in China, and you've got 5 or 7 minutes to spare, I hope you'll take our short online survey. Just leave your email address at the end of the survey, and we'll get you an aggregated copy of the survey results.

And if you don't know about intearctive marketing in China, just sit tight: We'll be publishing some very interesting highlights from that survey right here on the Forrester blogs shortly.

'Tis The Season - Sales Kickoff Meetings Under The Microscope

As the 2011 calendar year winds down, many sales enablement professionals are working on their sales kickoff initiative for the coming year. These large-scale events are an integral part of annual cycle, where the sales team converges on a fully prepared hotel for a days-long pep rally full of content sessions, vision-setting, and plenty of networking. Many of the sales kickoffs we hear about, and participate in, are focused on motivating and inspiring the sales force to hit their annual quota, or better yet, set new sales records.  

While a healthy dose of motivation for the sales force is always important, next year's sales kickoff may require a healthy dose of reality as well.

It seems the expense of sales kickoffs is being scrutinized more than last year at higher levels of the organization. In fact, many of sales enablement professionals we talked with this quarter are being asked to justify the sales kickoff investment by their CEO. On top of that, sales leaders are asking for a more specific description of what's going to happen in the sales kickoff, and how the content in the event is going to help their salespeople drive the sales process forward. Both of these views – the view from the top and the view from the trenches – converge at a seemingly simple, yet often difficult to answer question:

"What's the expected impact of the sales kickoff next year?"

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New Senior Analyst Introduction (Anthony Mullen)

I'm delighted to be starting with Forrester as a Senior Analyst serving Interactive Marketers. I am based in our London office and will cover Global and EMEA specific topics. 

A little bit about me . . .

I studied computer science in Edinburgh, Scotland over 20+ years ago when it was mostly a mathematical topic — heavy on algebra, programming, and other dry subject matter. While some of these topics remained in academia for many years I have seen how they have come to be nurtured under a more commercial light with recommendation systems and rich analytics solutions proliferating in the marketing technology landscape. These tools live alongside bleeding-edge techniques including neuroscience tools to measure pre-cognitive responses to media, messages, and experiences. It’s clear that the mad scientists and M(ad) Men are working side by side. Of course, marketing will always have a strong and essential dollop of artistic flair in the elixir but without doubt it is moving inexorably toward a science helped, in part, from the massive data sets now available through the web and social paradigm.

My experience in the industry has seen me work with many telecommunications companies, media publishers, startups, and hardware manufacturers on a wide gamut of products, marketing strategies and solutions to problems. Most recently I supported the BBC with short- and long-term CRM/sCRM strategies (across all channels) as well as implementing prototypes in the marketing resource management (MRM) and media planning space. In the mobile domain I recently completed some work with Vodafone Global on a system that wove its own mobile content together with third-party content using recommendation engine technologies and HTML5.

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Who Is That Crazy Lady In Macy's? (A Mobile Augmented Reality Story)

It's me. I was in Macy's last Saturday morning checking out the augmented reality (AR) app, "Believe Magic." I got a lot of stares. At one point, I had a small audience as I danced about and took photos with Macy holiday characters ("Yes, Virginia" characters) that only I could see on my phone. What I liked about this app is that Macy's and Metaio didn't push the technology too far - they created an experience well within the bounds of the technology. It worked without long delays or instructions.

There were TWO red mailboxes in the Macy's in downtown SF. When I asked for help ("Where's the red mailbox with the AR app?") from the nice Macy's executive in a black suit, her jaw dropped a bit with the realization she had no idea what I had just said or wanted. Another sales associate helped me out and took me over to a full-blown display that allows people to interact with the characters even if they don't have a phone. The app allows you to take pictures with the characters, share them with friends (usual FB and Twitter plus email), make cards, etc. It's fun. The small crowd of people pointing and staring . . . also fun. :)

This app is more about marketing, but it will give you a sense of the potential of AR for commerce purposes. We've just finished up research due out this week that speaks to the uses of AR in the purchase funnel or commerce track. AR will allow consumers to experience products pre-purchase. AR will simplify the discovery and consumption of content (e.g., pricing). AR will improve the owners' experience with "how to" guides.

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Twitter: Is Anybody Doing It "Right"?

Twitter isn’t the largest social network, but its users are very active and tend to be influential. As a result, more and more marketers are looking for ways to leverage the service. The challenge of course is that Twitter is distinctively different than other digital channels, so marketers still struggle to find the “right” way to engage.

In our just-published report about Twitter, we found that:

·  Many successful uses of Twitter go beyond the marketing department. Alone, that’s probably not all that surprising. What’s particularly interesting though is that even when Twitter is used in non-marketing departments — like customer service, PR or even sales  — interactive marketers are participating in the development of the channel to ensure that disparate accounts are strategically aligned.

·  Twitter provides both an overwhelming amount of data and is dominated by a minority of influential users. This can be confusing to marketers because it often means that huge amounts of conversation are created by people who all seem to require a response. Handling that volume and depth of conversation can be particularly daunting. More daunting:  Marketers need to be even more interesting and more relevant than the average influential user if they want to cut through the cluttered streams and engage their consumers.

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