Global Tech Recovery Will Drive US IT Market Growth Of 6.6% And 8.2% Globally (In Dollars) In 2010

2009 was a miserable year for tech vendors, especially for sellers of capital equipment like PCs, servers, routers, and licensed software, and for systems integrators who helped implement that software.   2010 will be a much better year, especially for these very same vendors.   We’re not talking boom yet, so we are not predicting double-digit growth rates across the tech market (though some categories will see those kinds of growth).  But, as our latest tech market report shows (http://www.forrester.com/rb/Research/us_and_global_it_market_outlook_q4/q/id/53384/t/2), we do think there will be a solid tech recovery in 2010, with growth rates in the high single digits.

 

Given that other IT advisory firms are predicting that tech markets will see growth of 3% to 4% in 2010, why are we so (relatively) bullish with our predictions of 6.6% growth in the US tech market, and 8.2% growth in the global tech market (when measured in US dollars)?  Three reasons:

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Growing Concern Over Risks To (And Of) The System

By the end of this year, we will likely all be sick of the phrase “systemic risk.” Referring to the complex and interconnected nature of risks that brought down the financial services sector, the phrase has been a focal point in the discussions on how to prevent such failures in the future. (And in my experience, this increased attention means that service and software vendors will be using the term in their marketing literature with increasing frequency in 2010.)

Policy makers are recommending systemic risk solutions such as new oversight bodies to assess for systemic risks or penalties for companies that are perceived to threaten the system. European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet even suggested that financial institutions help avoid systemic risks by "putting aside their own profit" and being "moderate in remuneration behavior," in order to reinforce their balance sheets.

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Progress Software Acquires Savvion to Create Dynamic Business Platform for Process Professionals

Business Process professionals are scratching their heads at today's announcement by Progress Software to acquire Savvion.  Process professionals are asking what exactly does this deal mean - for Progress and Savvion's combined customer portfolios and for the broader BPM market. 

Connie Moore and I sat down earlier today to record a video blog post on what this deal means for Business Process professionals and to the broader BPM market.

 

In our video blog post (also posted on Forrester's YouTube Channel), we outlined three key themes driving the Progress/Savvion deal and how Process pros should view and respond to the latest round of acquisitions in the BPM space:  Process pros should:
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Self-Service Business Intelligence: Dissolving the Barriers to Creative Decision-Support Solutions

Self-service is all the rage in the world of business intelligence (BI), but it’s no fad. In fact, it’s the only way to make BI more pervasive, delivering insights into every decision—important or mundane—that drives your business. It’s the key to empowering users with actionable insights while removing many mundane BI development and maintenance tasks from IT’s crushing workload.

In mid- 2009, I published a Forrester report describing key benefits, use cases, and approaches for implementing self-service BI, under the broad heading of “mighty mashup.” Forrester customers have responded very favorably to the discussion, asking for advice on whether, when, and how they should adopt this approach. Going forward, Forrester will deepen our discussion of self-service as a best practice to be incorporated into enterprise BI Solution Center (BISC) teachings.

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Does The Business (Still) Hate IT?

There is certainly no shortage of books to read about how to do a better job in 2010.  One of those just noted is "8 Things We Hate About IT" by Susan Cramm.  Given a quick review of the list, probably a better way to title it would be “8 Beaten-to-Death Clichés” about IT-business relationships.

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Case Study #1: How ACT! by Sage Software Transformed the Customer Experience By Social Media

The First Case Study in the Series About "How to Deploy Customer Service Social Media!"

If you have been following this blog, you might remember that I posted this a while back. But with the new year here, I thought it might be good to repeat some of the case studies while adding new ones... just in case you missed them or in case you wanted a refresher as you start down the path of providing a solution to your company social media needs!

When I published the ROI of customer service social media, everyone had asked me - who is doing social media and what are they doing. To help those who haven't started down the social media path, I put together the 5 Best Practices of customer service social media. That doc is chocked full of ideas you can use today. And to provide more details on how companies have accomplished their goals for social media, I also decided to publish a bunch of case studies! ACT! is the first of many! I hope it helps you to get a better idea of how valuable social media is and its bottom-line affects!

Who is Sage and What Did They Want to Accomplish With Social Media?

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Process Mining: Because Your Company’s Workflow Issues Aren’t Always Obvious

Business processes can be incredibly hard to fathom. The more complex they are, the more difficult it is to find the magic blend of tasks, roles, flows, and other factors that distinguish a well-tuned process from a miserable flop. Even the people who’ve been part of the process for years may have little clue. It’s not just that they refuse to look beyond their job-specific perspectives, for fear of jeopardizing their careers. It’s often an issue of them being too close to the problem to see it clearly, even if they try very hard.

Process analytics is all about identifying what works and doesn’t work. It’s a key focus for us here at Forrester, and I’m collaborating with one of our leading business process management (BPM) analysts, Clay Richardson, on research into this important topic. The first order of business for us is to identify the full range of enabling infrastructure and tools for tracking, exploring, and analyzing a wide range of workflows. It’s clear that this must include, at the very least, business activity monitoring (BAM) tools, which roll up key process metrics into visual business intelligence (BI)-style dashboards for operational process managers. Likewise, historical process metrics should be available to the business analysts who design and optimize workflows. And each user should have access to whatever current key performance indicators are relevant to the roles they perform within one or more processes.

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Cloud-Hosted Collaboration: Multi-Tenant Or Dedicated?

We just had another of our regular cloud research meetings at Forrester. In these meetings, we cut across our research organization to examine cloud computing from every angle.

Compared with even just a year ago, it's amazing how important and pervasive cloud computing analysis (as opposed to cloud computing guesswork) has become in our research calendar.

You can see the existing cloud/*aaS research here and our planned research here. As the meeting host, I mostly listen, probe, and take notes, but ocassionally I get to jump in with a thought.

To wit: We are often asked about whether cloud-based collaboration (email, team sites, instant messaging, Web conferencing, social computing, etc.) works best on multi-tenant, dedicated solutions, or both. The answer is both, but trending towards multi-tenant. Our clients are interested in both multi-tenant and single-tenant or dedicated cloud solutions -- as long as the price is right.

The future of cloud-based collaboration is clearly multi-tenant for two economic reasons:

1. Multi-tenant enables the fundamental economic benefits of a shared resource. We can see this in the price war going on in email right now -- a 50% price cut in the last 12 months with multi-tenant cloud email. The floor on email cost keeps dropping, fueled by the better economics of multi-tenant solutions and high capacity utilization.

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Social Network Analysis: The Fuse Igniting Enterprise Data Warehouse Growth. It’s Planet Petabyte or Bust!

Social networks have always been with us, of course, but now they’ve gained concrete reality in the online fabric of modern life.

Social network analysis has, in a real sense, been with us almost as long as we’ve been doing predictive analytics. Customer churn analysis is the killer app for predictive analytics, and it is inherently social. It’s long been known that individual customers don’t always churn themselves—i.e., decide to renew and/or bolt to the competition—in isolation. As they run the continual calculus called loyalty in their heads and hearts, they’re receiving fresh feeds of opinion from their friends and families, following the leads of peers and influencers, and keeping their fingers to the cultural breeze. You could also make a strong case for social networking—i.e., individual behaviors spurred, shaped, and encouraged within communities—as a key independent variable driving cross-sell, up-sell, fraud, and other phenomena for which we’ve long built predictive models.

The other day, a Forrester client was asking me for educated guesses on how fast the average enterprise data warehouse (EDW) is likely to grow over the next several years, and as I was working through the analysis, I couldn’t avoid the conclusion that social network analysis—for predictive and other uses—will be an important growth driver (though not the entire story). I’d like to lay out my key points.

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Project Managers: Resolve To Evolve In The New Year!

I was catching up on my reading over the holidays and came across an intriguing article in my December issue of PM Network magazine. It began like this:

"As their role changes, project managers must acquire new skills - or risk being left behind. It's a whole new world out there for project managers..."

Hallelujah, I shouted! Having recently published research on the skills and capabilities of the next-generation project manager, I couldn't agree more. Changes to software delivery necessitate a reinvention of the project manager role. In the world of app dev, we're seeing that:

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