Quantifying mobile trends in Western Europe

At the end of this year, Forrester expects mobile Internet penetration to reach 17% in Western Europe — the same adoption rate for the PC Internet a decade ago. At that time, mobile phone penetration was still below the 40% threshold and mobile shops were opening at every high-street corner. Companies were only starting to launch their web presence and to anticipate the impact of the Web. Operator-branded mobile Internet solutions would only launch 3 years after and 3G in 2003/2004.

10 years after, the mobile Internet is reaching critical mass and a virtuous mobile Internet cycle is kicking off. Consumers who have a flat-rate data bundle spend more and more time on the Internet from their mobile phones, brands begin to launch their mobile Web presence to monetize these growing audiences and engage with their customers via more relevant mobile content and services, which in turn attracts more and more consumers to unlimited mobile Internet tariffs.

The current economic climate will lengthen handset renewal cycles, foster the development of low-cost offerings, and boost the uptake of SIM-only contracts. Operators are likely to postpone major investments in new networks such as 4G / Long-Term Evolution, despite early trials and commercialization in the Nordics. However, it will only slightly reduce the pace of growth for those elements that stimulate mobile Internet usage: 3.5G and Internet-centric mobile phones as well as all-you-can-eat data plans will be widely available in the next five years. That's the reason why Forrester expects mobile Internet to grow to 39% by the end of 2014. That's a lower end point than for the PC Internet in 2004, but the growth curve per se looks quite the same.

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Nokia Breaks with the Past: N900 Linux Maemo Phone Announced

By Ian Fogg (bio, recent research or follow me on twitter)

The new N900 is a departure from Nokia's regular evolutionary extensions to the Nokia handset portfolio that build on previous models. It's the first big reaction to the many new entrants that have arrived in the high end Internet phone market over the last two years (Google's Android, Apple, Palm's Pre etc.).

While the Nokia N97 that launched earlier this year used a variant of the same software used in every high end Nokia Internet phone for over five years -- Symbian Series 60 -- the N900 does not. For the first time, Nokia is launching a high end Internet phone using Linux. And note, The N900 is using Maemo, and not Android.

Nokia isn't positioning the N900 as a "smartphone". This is smart. Read why here: The "Smartphone" Is Dead: Long Live Smart Phones And Smart Gadgets.

This is a significant strategic play for Nokia as I warned clients was coming last year. I've seen the N900 and held it in my hands. It's impressive. But is it enough to help Nokia re-gain mindshare? Comment below! Or, contact me via the Forrester inquiry team (clients) or press office (media).

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Why Nokia is Launching a Netbook

By Ian Fogg (bio, recent research)

Today, Nokia announces its first netbook, called the Nokia Booklet 3G (press release, Nokia blog post). Like all netbooks, the Nokia Booklet 3G is essentially a miniature laptop PC and has more capability in common with the PC than with handheld devices like mobile phones. Despite misinformed advance speculation, the Booklet will run Windows and has an impressive claimed battery life of 12 hours.

In the flesh, the Booklet 3G has a neat modern design and a modern
metallic appearance case. The screen and keyboard are both relatively
large and well-proportioned.

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What role will mobile play in the future of social networks?

I published my first report on mobile social networks 2 years ago (see here) at a time when Facebook audience was "only" around 50 million unique monthly visitors. At that time MySpace was a paid-for and exclusive experience on Vodafone-Live and Bebo was about to launching a mobile version. Needless to say lots has happened in the last 2 years.

Numerous acquisitions and parternships took place between the likes of Facebook, MySpace, Bebo, Twitter, Hyves and with handset manufacturers / mobile operators. Several mobile-only communities (AirG, peperonity, itsmy.com, buzzcity...) have gained traction and there is plenty of innovation in that space. INQ generated lots of media coverage and interest by lauching its so-called "Facebook phone" and plans to launch new devices. I am not sure what the latest Facebook mobile stats are but not that long ago rougly 10% of the worldwide installed base of FB users had registered to the mobile version. Even more significantly, the GSMA announced a few months ago that UK mobile consumers who access Facebook via their mobile phone spend, on average, 24 minutes on the site daily, just shy of the 27.5 minutes that PC-based Internet users spend daily on Facebook; mobile users of Facebook average 3.3 visits per day versus 2.3 visits per day from PC users.

Facebook mobile

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