eReaders are set to have one of the shortest growth life cycles in device history. Between 2009-2011 the average annual sales of dedicated eReading devices in the US grew by more than 100%. In 2012, US dedicated eReader sales growth will be negative. The decline of the eReader is driven by the availability and affordability of tablets, with global tablet sales in 2012 set to reach more than 120 million.
The Forrester Research eReader And eBook Adoption Forecast, 2012 To 2017 (Global)analyzes eBook adoption drivers across more than 50 countries. Heavy readers like eBooks. In the US, eBook readers read an average of 24 books per year compared with just 15 books for non-eBook readers. In addition, eBook readers are becoming more device-agnostic, with similar eBook reading levels observed across tablets and dedicated eReading devices.
We used the following drivers to calculate our forecast for eBooks and eReaders
Since the launch of the iPad in 2010, more than 200 million tablets have been sold worldwide. Compare this with the laptop, which went from 2 million unit sales in 1990 to just 29 million 10 years later. Tablets have already started to cannibalize laptop and eReader device sales, as they offer distinct advantages over the laptop — they’re lightweight, have a long battery life, and provide convenience via a touchscreen and their “always on” mode.
· A growing online population: By 2017, the majority of the worldwide online population will reside in Asia Pacific; this region will contain 34% of tablet owners. Europe and North America will follow.
· The fall of tablet prices: For example, the Turkish government plans to distribute domestically produced tablets to 15 million students for free.