I’m attending Apple’s special event tomorrow and Microsoft’s Windows launch on Thursday in NYC, though I won’t be at the Google and Microsoft events early next week. I’m tuned in for hints of where personal computing technology is going — how will mobile and PC influence one another?
Back in April, I wrote about the idea of “frames,” a new form of peripheral displays or all-in-one PCs that work tightly with your mobile device or laptop. When you arrive at a desk and sit down to work, these frames would automatically display your work from the mobile or laptop, so you can continue working seamlessly on a large screen. And not just a large screen, one that has sensors, extra computing power, and a wireless connection.
So I’ll be watching for things like support in Apple’s Macs for receiving AirPlay from mobile devices or Microsoft announcing how SmartGlass might make it possible for your tablet and desktop PCs to work together better.
What kinds of cooperation features are you envisioning that make mobile and PC technologies work together better?
Windows 8 is a make or break product launch for Microsoft. Windows will endure a slow start as traditional PC users delay upgrades, while those eager for Windows tablets jump in. After a slow start in 2013, Windows 8 will take hold in 2014, keeping Microsoft relevant and the master of the PC market, but simply a contender in tablets, and a distant third in smartphones.
Microsoft has long dominated PC units, with something more than 95% sales. The incremental gains of Apple’s Mac products over the last five years haven’t really changed that reality. But the tremendous growth of smartphones, and then tablets, has. If you combine all the unit sales of personal devices, Microsoft’s share of units has shrunk drastically to about 30% in 2012.
It’s hard to absorb the reality of the shift without a picture, so in the report “Windows: The Next Five Years,” we estimated and forecast the unit sales of PCs, smartphones, and tablets from 2008 to 2016 to create a visual. As you can see below in the chart of unit sales, Microsoft has and will continue to grow unit sales of Windows and Windows Phone. But the mobile market grew very fast in the last five years, while Microsoft had tiny share in smartphones and no share in tablets.
If you look at the results by share of all personal devices, below, you can see how big a shift happened over the last five years as smartphone units exploded and the iPad took hold.
Microsoft Windows will power just one-third of personal computing devices sold during 2012. Say what? Over the past five years, the transition to mobile devices has transformed Microsoft’s position from desktop dominance to one of several players vying for share in a new competitive landscape.
And so Microsoft is making some very bold moves to transform Windows: creating a singular touch-native UX for a seamless experience across PCs and mobile devices, building an app store distribution model, and engaging its vast user base to develop core personal cloud services.
You’ll learn about the trends and behaviors shaping a painful, but ultimately successful, five-year migration for the Windows franchise. We will size and forecast the future of Windows’ presence in a device landscape where market share is measured across all computing devices, not just PCs. And we will outline the new personal computing success metrics for OS providers and ecosystems, which look beyond device market share to customer engagement across multiple formats, online services, and content delivery.