Forrester Publishes Its New Online Retail Forecast For Latin America

We just published our new Latin American Online Retail Forecast, 2012-2017 which forecasts growth in Brazil, Mexico and, for the first time, Argentina. In the report, we analyze the B2C and C2C online retail markets in these three countries, and note that:

Brazil remains the largest eCommerce market in Latin America by a wide margin. Despite the economic slowdown in Brazil, eCommerce continues to charge ahead in the country, surpassing USD 12 Billion this year. Unlike the other two markets we forecast in the region, Brazil’s eCommerce market is heavily driven by mass-market consumers: Our surveys indicate that over half of metropolitan online users whose monthly income is less than BRL 4,000 (around USD 2,000) shop online in Brazil. Online shoppers in Brazil are also starting to diversify their purchases beyond early adopter categories such as books and media, consumer electronics and computer hardware.

eCommerce revenues in Mexico are growing rapidly off a small base. In contrast to Brazil, eCommerce in Mexico remains at an early stage, with small but growing revenues. Online buyers tend to be relatively affluent, but per capita online spending remains quite low. As the online buying population expands and starts to encompass a broader demographic, eBusinesses will need to take into account the large percentage of consumers in Mexico who do not have credit cards and who access the Internet outside the home or office.

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How eCommerce Markets Evolve

One of the topics I’ve spoken about at recent industry events is how global eCommerce markets evolve – more specifically, how markets shift from an early stage to one in which consumers spend lavishly online and buy across a wide variety of categories.

After interviewing dozens of companies about their experience expanding into different global markets, and after reviewing internal and external data, we’ve noted that markets tend to go through four phases as they reach the stage of well developed eCommerce. We identify these four phases as the following:

Phase 1: Connecting and Entertaining. In this phase, consumers are starting to go online and connecting with others through the online channel. Some 10-15 years ago, consumers were likely to go online and engage through email or chat; today, social networking has joined the ranks of one of the early activities of online users. Socialbakers’ estimates of Facebook users by country indicate that the network’s top five markets outside the US are Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey – in such markets, the number of Facebook users today often surpasses the total number of online users just five years ago.

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