This year at Davos I asked people how many years it will take for China to pass the US in gross domestic product. For context, China's GDP in 2010 was $5.7 trillion; the US was at $14.6 trillion. China is growing at 15.3% per year, the US at 3.6%.
Respondents to my question included tech CEOs, a former UK prime minister, a former US senator, and the head of one of the world’s largest banks. I polled entrepreneurs, economists, and businesspeople from many parts of the world. In all, 40 attendees answered the question. Here are the results:
1) The average was 18 years -- 2029.
2) Of the 40, only three said that China would never pass the US.
3) The low number of years was eight; the high was 55.
4) Many believed that there would be a political disruption for China, but this would not delay the eventual overtaking of the US.
A caveat: The World Economic Forum loves straight lines -- it celebrates stasis and is not adept at predicting disruption. So any so-called obvious trend (e.g., China up, the US flat-lining) is embraced and accepted. Only one problem: The future rarely cooperates.
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