A favorite book: The Logic of Failure

The_logic_of_failure_2If you're in the business of running a company, a large team, an acquisition, or a data center, check out this book. The full title is: The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations. It's written by the German psychologist Dietrich Dorner.

The thesis: "...we have been turned loose in the industrial age equipped with the brain of prehistoric times." Simply stated, most human beings are terrible at managing complex systems. Dorner's students run a model of a small fictitious African village -- changing variables like cattle stocks, food stores, arable land. Invariably the students kill off the entire "population" through their miss-planning

As it turns out, good managers of complex systems showed common approaches:

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Confessions of a two month CEO blogger

At the Forrester Marketing Forum in LA, held on April 8-9, I gave a short presentation on my first two months of blogging. Many of the marketing executives in attendance are urging their CEOs to blog -- I thought my early impressions might prepare them for CEO reactions. Here goes:

Number One: "No one is reading my blog -- my out-sized ego can't take it." Prepare your CEO for a slow audience build.

Number Two: "Once a week? I'm too busy trying to run the company to do this." Yes, one post a week may only take a few hours -- but "...getting into the conversation" -- reading and commenting at other blogs -- what all experienced bloggers urge you to do, will double the time required.

Number Three: "The technology sucks." Blogging technology is shockingly crude. Get ready to give your CEO tech support -- even around the fundamentals like getting a picture into a post.

Number Four: "I'm not getting anything back." This is the corrollary to Number One. I often feel like I'm on a one-way phone conversation -- I talk, but there's no one listening. I lust for value-filled comments that will improve and drive my ideas. With time, they will come.

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The China Bubble

Chineseflag Quickly:  Conventional wisdom glosses over China's limitations and problems.

Roger Cohen's starry-eyed China tribute in the New York Times is emblematic of the runaway euphoria surrounding that emerging economy. Threat to America…threat to Asia…ready to overtake Europe in the next 10 years…exploding – the gold rush place to be...450 million cell phones…becoming highly creative and innovative…the new model…the future.

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