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Posted by Andrew Bartels on September 20, 2011
As readers of my blog will remember, we were all ready to publish our mid-2011 update to our global economy report (see July 28, 2011, "Forrester Will Lower Its Tech Market Forecast By One-to-Two Percentage Points, Depending On Federal Debt Ceiling Outcome") when the US deficit ceiling crisis, renewal of the European debt crisis, and other developments raised questions about the strength of the economic recovery. Given the deterioration in the economic outlook, we stopped publication to rework our forecast to reflect those changes. The delay did have a some side benefits, including getting Q2 tech market data for Canada, adjusting our US data on computer equipment, communications, and equipment for Bureau of Economic Affairs revisions, incorporating new data sources for our US projections for IT consulting and outsourcing services, and taking advantage of the better data on Australia, China, India, and Japan from Forrester's acquisition of Springboard.
With these updates now complete, we just published our new projections for 2011 and 2012 tech market growth in the US, the world, and the major regions and countries (see September 16, 2011, "Global Tech Market Outlook For 2011 And 2012: Economic And Financial Turmoil Dims 2012 Prospects"). The bottom line? Despite economic turmoil in the US and Western Europe and downward adjustments in our 2012 projections, our forecasts for 2011 and even 2012 remain relatively positive. 2011 growth will be solid, with 11.5% global growth in US dollars, and 7.5% growth on a currency-adjusted basis. 2012 will see declining, but still positive growth, with 5.5% growth in US dollars (assuming a slight strengthening of the dollar against the euro and yen) and 6.5% growth in local currency numbers. I would note that our 2011 US dollar growth rate is quite a bit higher than the 2011 forecast of 7.1% growth from earlier in the year (see January 10, 2011, "2010 To 2012 Global Tech Industry Outlook — 2011 Looks Like 2010, But With Software Leading Instead Of Hardware"), but this mainly due to changes in data inputs and a weaker-than-expected US dollar; in local currency terms, the growth rate is about the same.
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