Best of 2008: Music

[Posted by David Card]

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Because I wear a music-industry analyst hat on occasion, I'm allowed to indulge in a top 10 list. It was a good year for new music - better than movies (and I'm not the only one who thought so) - so of course sales are down. I bought 40 albums, which is 10 less than last year. (I qualify as a high-spending, digitally active "aficionado," in Jupiter's music customer segmentation; which numbers me among 16% of online adults.) 

But last year 60% of my purchases were back catalog. This year just over half were new. This year over half my purchases were digital downloads vs. CDs. Last year I was over 60% CD. Compared with the survey, I'm way ahead of the aficionado curve in going digital, though about on pace with the average paying downloader. This year almost all of my downloads came from Amazon; last year I split evenly between iTunes and Amazon. So, in no particular order:

Best Albums of 2008

• The Kills "Midnight Boom" - what the hipsters listen to
• The Raveonettes "Lust Lust Lust" - lo-fi wall-of-sound
  
• The Airborne Toxic Event "The Airborne Toxic Event" - catchy, occasionally epic emo
• The National "Boxer" - subtle, it grows on you
• Frightened Rabbit "The Midnight Organ Fight" - a bit twee, but heartfelt
• Nick Cave & the Bad Seeds "Dig, Lazarus, Dig!!!" - Nick Cave's great rock album
• Frank Black "Svn Fngrs" - minimal, intense
• R.E.M. "Accelerate" - got their mojo back
• Wovenhand "Ten Stones" - I like my Christian rockers apocalyptic
• The Ting Tings "We Started Nothing" - pure pop

Apparently, I've gone totally indie. Counting the comebacks, besides R.E.M., Metallica kicked Guns n' Roses' butt. And Paul McCartney's relatively experimental noodlings as Fireman are worth a listen. Among debuts, Ra Ra Riot's almost made the list (along with Airborne and Ting Tings, above).

Could WOM Kill Media?

[Posted by David Card]

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A thoughtful post from the guys in Stamford. If marketers really figured out social media, wouldn't that be the death of traditional mass media? Probably not - at least not soon - says Gartner's Andrew Frank.

Some research on:

• Social branding
• Advertiser Hot Buttons media companies should address

Mobilizing

[Posted by David Card]

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I had fun judging some mobile content yesterday. I'm sworn to secrecy, but trust me, the winners were cool. And some of them even integrated advertising gracefully.

However, I was a bit disappointed - as were several other judges - about how many of the apps missed out on applying some core values. Way too much "port over a Web app, and try real hard to accommodate the small screen and keyboard."

Doesn't it seem to you like mobile content should actually exploit the fact it's mobile (that is, on the go), that it's local, and that it's running on a device that's optimized for communications (that is, social)? Sigh. Anyway, my report in production will show that on-the-go broadband will be dominated by the small screen (versus on-the-go laptops), and that there will be a critical mass audience for marketers and programmers to target in the US beginning in 2010. Till it's posted, here's what's up in the US, and the outlook for mobile broadband PCs in Europe.

I don't think the Internet will gravitate to the handset, either. Intersect with it, for sure. And that's one reason why He who synchs best, wins, as former colleague Michael Gartenberg would say.

Jupiter Online Ad Forecast: Modest Growth in 2009

[Posted by David Card]

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In the face of overall economic turmoil, advertising spending appears to be holding up a little better online than in other media. Jupiter forecasts that US spending on online display advertising will end up growing 12 percent in 2008 to reach $8.3 billion, then slow to an eight percent rate in 2009, when it will reach $8.9 billion. Financial services spending on display ads will decline for the next two years, while auto and lead generation will remain essentially flat. (See US Online Category Advertising Forecast, 2008 to 2013.)

Paid search spending should finish 2008 with 26 percent growth, to $11.4 billion, then slow to 20 percent growth next year. Adding in Classifieds, Display, and Search, US online spending in total will finish 2008 up 18 percent, at $23.6 billion, then slow to 15 percent growth in 2009, and 11 percent in 2010. After that, depending on how the recession plays out, we should see a slight acceleration again, driven by display.

How does that compare to offline spending? We're projecting total offline -- including direct mail -- to be essentially flat in 2008, and down 7 percent in 2009. Broadcast TV should be down 8 percent next year, with cable not much better. Radio'll be down 10 percent, as will magazines, and newspapers down 15 percent.

Perspective? Offline was down 6 percent in 2001, but that was after an up year, rather than a flat one like 2008. Online grew 3% in 2001, and was flat in 2002. But search was just emerging then, and display was down double digits both years as dotcoms imploded.

So it looks a little ugly, but it's all relative. Hey, we're still expecting growth. Relevant research for thriving during the downturn:

Ad Sales Strategy for online media

Can Marketing Deliver Growth in the Downturn?

Recession Marketing strategies

There's a Reason It Was So Cheap

There's a reason it was so cheap.

Alan Gutman, the lawyer representing Axl and Guns N' Roses, sent a scolding letter (which cited Advertising Age's coverage of the campaign), to Larry Young, president-CEO of the Dr Pepper Snapple Group. The letter stated that Dr Pepper's campaign had exploited the singer's reputation and the "eagerly awaited" album, and stated that payment would be sought for the unauthorized use of the Guns N' Roses brand.