In our latest US and Global IT market forecast (http://www.forrester.com/go?docid=53305), Forrester stays steady with our June 2009 projections that the US tech market will start to recover from the downturn in Q4 2009, with the global tech market improving in 2010. However, the 2009 growth rate now shows a bigger decline than our earlier forecasts, for two reasons. First, cutbacks in capital investment, which had earlier been confined to computer and communications equipment, spread in the first half of 2009 to licensed software, causing big declines in this category of tech purchases. Second, upward revisions to US IT investment data in 2007 and 2008 by the US Department of Commerce raised the base periods for measuring 2009 growth, making the 2009 declines even greater than before. Thus, we now project a -9.3% decline in US tech purchases in 2009, compared to a 5.1% decline in our June forecast. But those revisions confirmed our position that a tech boom was starting to take shape in 2008, before being rudely interrupted by the September financial. The weak results in early 2009 also mean that the market will hit bottom sooner, setting a low base for year-over-year growth starting in Q4 2009 and into 2010.
The story is the same for the global outlook. 2009 now looks worse than our previous forecasts, but 2010 still looks like a year of solid recovery. One factor that will help reported vendor results (especially for US vendors) is the decline in the value of the US dollar against major currencies since March of 2009. The value of the dollar is now about where it was a year ago, so vendors will be able to report Q4 2009 revenues in US dollars that will be better than their currency-adjusted numbers.
Xerox may soon own ACS. A great move if you ask me - for tactical and strategic reasons. XGS -the services arm - has been making some "toe in the water" moves over the last few years towards BPO in markets such as E-Discovery, Mortgage Processing, and growing organically core processes such as invoice processing and customer on boarding. These made sense in the quest for higher value conversations with customers but did not have the juice to really transform the company into a services-led player of the 21st century or position the company to expand into cloud and SaaS offerings. This deal has the power to do just that -adding solutions, project and change management skills as well as a mature labor arbitrage infrastructure.
I had an interesting inquiry with a client that began with this question - "What is the defniition of a legacy application?" Yikes, I thought - this will be one of those long-ranging, rhetorical discussions that - at the end of the day - lacks the kind of decisive answer clients typically seek during inquiries. The client actually had a good reason for wanting an externally published, formal definition - an external entity was attempting to measure the company's risk by quantifying its exposure to "legacy."
I have grown weary of hearing excuses (for 20 years) from application development professionals about why they are challenged when it comes to developing and delivering applications that meet the expectations of the bus
Three quarters into 2009, and it seems that the market share of the four megavendors in IT management software (BMC, CA, HP and IBM) has again seriously eroded against their smaller competitors. The global ITMS market itself did not shrink: smaller vendors are reporting better results than forecast.
One major reason for this turn of events is that enterprises are struggling with smaller or flat IT budgets, and are therefore looking for a bigger bang for their buck, both in terms of CAPEX and OPEX: deals are smaller, more tactical in nature and tend to favor point solutions again.
But why is it that the larger ITMS vendors cannot compete with the smaller ones in tactical solutions?
There are no templates for being an effective CEO. When asked how to be a good leader, Jack Welch answered, "Be yourself" -- and I would concur. Especially if you serve for many years, you can't fake it.
That said, there are many valuable lessons to be learned. I get inspiration and tips from fiction (Martin Sheen's President Bartlet on The West Wing), history (Churchill's writings on WW II) academics like Warren Bennis, and from watching other CEOs in action. Recently I've drawn some inspiration from John Chambers, the CEO at Cisco. Here's what I've learned:
Companies are trying to get in touch and have a conversation with their customers through social networks, but customers' interaction with companies are mostly driven by promotions or personal gain. Data from our North American Technographics online survey shows that the majority of consumers reached out to companies to enter a sweepstake of to register for a promotion. .