Facebook Has Finally Killed Organic Reach. What Should Marketers Do Next?

Nate Elliott

After years of pushing brands’ reach lower with one hand (and opening marketers’ wallets with the other) Facebook has finally announced the end of organic social marketing on its site.

In a Friday night blog post the social giant warned brands that “Beginning in January 2015, people will see less of this type of content [promotional page posts] in their News Feeds,” and admitted that brands that post promotional content “will see a significant decrease in distribution.”

It’s not as if marketers could count on much organic reach or engagement anyway. Ogilvy reported that in February 2014 large brands’ Facebook posts reached just 2% of their fans (a number that was falling by .5% per month). And earlier this year a Forrester study showed that on average, only .07% of top brands’ Facebook fans interact with each of their posts. But Facebook’s latest announcement will certainly make matters worse.

What should marketers do now? Today we published a report called “Social Relationship Strategies That Work” that details several options. Two of the most important things brands can do are:

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US Mobile Payments Will Reach $142B By 2019

Denée Carrington

The media frenzy around mobile payments — most recently Apple Pay — has reached fever pitch and led some industry spectators to conclude that a payments revolution is at hand. Not so. The adoption of mobile payments is an evolution — not a revolution — and the evolution is well underway. Although the landscape of mobile payment providers is in an ongoing state of flux, the ecosystem and mobile capabilities are maturing and consumer and merchant adoption is accelerating.  Over the next five years, US mobile payments will grow from $52 billion in 2014 to $142 billion by 2019 with both national brands and local merchants.  Over the next five years, we can expect: 

  • Consumers undergoing a mobile mind shift will create new mobile moments in commerce. Over the last five years, US consumers have adopted smartphones at a breakneck pace – growing from just 19% in 2009 to 66% in 2014.As consumers integrate mobile into every aspect of their lives, they are turning to their mobile devices to get things done wherever they are. Consumers are undergoing a mobile mind shift: “the expectation that I can get what I want in my immediate context and moments of need. Their increasing reliance on their mobile phones gives rise to higher expectations — it has ushered in the emergence of mobile moments in which businesses can find new opportunities to meet or surpass customer expectations in payments and commerce.
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The European Mobile Workspace Will Transform The Way We Work

Dan Bieler

The provider of your mobile workspace solutions will be more than just a provider of technology. Rather, the right provider will have to bring the right assets and experience to act as a strategic partner during the mobile mind shift transition. Therefore, a critical first step to succeed is to understand the vendor landscape for mobile workspace solutions. Picking the right service partner is particularly hard across Europe where specific user requirements and a fragmented and heterogeneous vendor landscape make the selection a complex task. My new report, Market Overview: European Mobile Workspace Services, assists CIOs in drawing up a mobile workspace strategy by providing an overview of the market and the key vendors. It includes profiles of Atos, Computacenter, CSC, HP, IBM, Orange, Telefónica, T-Systems, Unisys, and Vodafone. The key takeaways are as follows:

  • Business processes define mobile workspace solutions – not vice versa. CIOs need to collaborate with business-line managers to analyze and define actual business processes that can be enhanced through mobile workspace solutions. Only then can CIOs define the business technology that is required to support the business.
  • The European mobile workspace market is heterogeneous. Forrester data highlights big differences in business requirements and approaches regarding mobile workspace solutions. These differences make it all the more important for the CIO to select a vendor that understands specific business requirements and national markets for mobile workspace solutions.
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Ready to Write Your Digital Strategy? Read This First.

China Will Become The First $1 Trillion Online Retail Market By 2019

During Tuesday’s 11.11 (Singles’ Day) Shopping Festival, Alibaba set new online retail records: 278.5 million orders with a GMV exceeding RMB 57 billion ($9.3 billion) (43% of which came from mobile devices). This comes on the heels of the world’s biggest IPO earlier this year, in which Alibaba raised $25 billion. Alibaba’s smaller rival JD.com, which raised $1.7 billion in its own IPO, received more than 14 million orders (40% of which came from mobile) on Singles’ Day 2014, an increase of more than 120% over November 11, 2013. Powered by the cash that their IPOs generated and growing demand among Chinese consumers, Forrester forecasts that China will become first $1 trillion online retail market by 2019.

Several factors contribute to this tremendous growth, including:

  • The rise of mobile shopping
  • eCommerce’s increasing wallet share and category expansion
  • Improving logistics
  • Penetration into lower-tier cities
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Telcos Prepare For A Roller Coaster Ride In 2015 And Beyond

Dan Bieler
We predict that the telecom business model will undergo dramatic transformation in 2015: a minority of telecoms will manage to reinvent their business model and will enter new market segments and get stronger. Meanwhile a majority of telcos will be bought or go out of business, thus driving consolidation.
At the same time, for business leaders, having access to quality network infrastructure represents a vital underpinning for their digital business and their long-term competitive advantage. We predict that by 2015 and beyond:
 
  • The telco business model will shift from sustaining to enabling critical infrastructure. Traditionally, the telco business model focused on sustaining operational efficiency of network infrastructure. In the years ahead, we predict a shift toward enabling solutions that support telco clients to engage with their customers more effectively. This mirrors not only the CIO’s shift from IT towards business technology but will also be the overarching theme during the transformation of the telco business model.
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2015 Predictions: Big Changes In Store For App Dev Leaders

Phil Murphy

The pace of change for App Dev leaders has always been rather hectic. In my 32+ years as an "apps guy" - I can't recall a time when supply of technology resources ever fully satisfied all  demand for the work that business leaders would like to do. Satisfying that demand has always been a challenging and constant balancing act. The past few years have heralded the age of the customer, where the voice of customers is amplified by social media and enabled by mobile applications - accelerating the pace of change for app dev & delivery leaders to a relentless pace. If you're hoping for a brief respite in 2015, it's time for rethink.

As a group-think exercise, esteemed colleagues John Rymer, Kurt Bittner, Chris Mines, and I focused on predictions for calendar year 2015 in the context of the change swirling around modern app development & delivery. We believe that several watershed events will drive 2015 change to the technology we'll use, the processes we'll employ, and the comeptition for a shrinking pool of talent. The full details can be found here - Predictions 2015: Modern Apps Mean New Technologies, Processes, And Skills. As an aside, Mobile app dev & delivery is tumultuous enough to warrant its own set of predictions - see Predictions 2015: Mobile Development Goes Composable, Contextual, And Cross-Touchpoint

You'll consolidate technology:

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Welcome to Carmine's blog

I'd like to introduce myself.

I joined Forrester's ForecastView team in May and am focusing my forecasting efforts on digital marketing. Before I came on board, I worked with the sales & marketing teams at ad tech vendor [x+1], now part of Rocket Fuel. In writing over a hundred proposals and countless other pieces of collateral and correspondence around RTB, DMPs, DSPs, SSPsPMPs, ATDs, etc., I came to develop an understanding not only of how ad tech works, but also of the marketer and agency agenda. I realized that the most satisfying part of my job was articulating esoteric concepts for internal and external audiences, bringing tactical order to the chaos Terry Kawaja visualizes in his LUMAscapes. So I came to Forrester as an Analyst to do this full time.

I cut my teeth at Deloitte Consulting, where I worked across industries (healthcare, insurance, banking, tech, manufacturing) and functional areas (marketing, finance, operations, IT) to develop master data management strategies, implement supply chain improvements & savings, redesign organizations, and streamline operations.

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Internet Of Things Software Platforms Will Become The Rage In 2015

Frank Gillett
The hype around the Internet of things was on full display over the last six weeks, with announcements and events from vendors such as ARM, Cisco, GE, IBM, Intel, PTC, and others. Much of the hype has focused on the possibility of saving lots of money because of all the new information that can help improve utilization and maintenance of expensive business assets. But in this age of the customer, where customer engagement rules, a focus only on cost savings is misplaced. When we look forward to 2015 and developments around the Internet of things we are predicting four key trends and implications for clients. Here are two of those predictions:
 
  • IoT customer success stories will displace “billions of devices” hype. Enough already with the Carl Sagan–like references to billions and billions of devices – we’ll finally see a focus on customer success stories about improved machine uptime, better customer experience, and new as-a-service business models.
  • IoT software platforms will become the rage, displacing the hardware. Much of the early hype has been about cool new sensors, high-tech wearables, and new wireless technologies. In 2015 we’ll increased focus on the software and especially the cloud services to make all these sensors connect, upload data, and drive analytics that generate insights and enable business improvements.
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Cloud Technologies Will Power The Most Successful Businesses In 2015

Dave Bartoletti

What's ahead for cloud computing in 2015? Check out our report for Forrester's take on the most important trends in cloud computing and what you should do about them. In 2014, cloud entered the formal IT portfolio, and technology managers stopped treating cloud as competition. In 2015, cloud technologies will mature into the driving force powering the most successful companies. Cloud enables unparalleled levels of sustained innovation. Companies that harness its power will win, serve and retain customers better than their competitors -- in less time and for less money -- if they take advantage of all the cloud has to offer. But where should you start?

Cloud computing isn't limited to a single technology, service, provider, or deployment model. Our cloud team, including James Staten, Lauren Nelson, Liz Herbert, William Martorelli, and Henry Baltazar, has gathered the most important 2015 trends in public cloud platforms, cloud management, application design, security, service provider strategies, SaaS, private and hybrid cloud. In our ten-prediction report, we describe the current state of the art in cloud, what will happen in 2015, and how you should respond. This report helps you focus on the most important trends first.

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